ICIS Forecasting Launches Asian Benzene-Styrene-Polystyrene-Expandable Polystyrene Monthly Report

ICIS Forecasting Launches Asian Benzene-Styrene-Polystyrene-Expandable Polystyrene Monthly Report

January 17, 2007

Monthly Service Blends Three Innovative Modeling Techniques
to Deliver Industry's Most Frequent, Precise Price Forecast

    SINGAPORE, Jan. 17 /Xinhua-PRNewswire/ -- ICIS, the
world's leading information provider to the chemical and
oil industry, today announced the launch of a price
forecast report for the Benzene-Styrene-Polystyrene-EPS
product chain covering the Asia market.  This is the second
Asian product chain included in ICIS forecasting. 

    "Due to continuing market volatility, there is a
strong demand for price forecasting of the
Benzene-Styrene-Polystyrene-EPS product chain in the
petrochemical industry," said Allison Farone, ICIS
Vice President - Americas.  "This specific monthly
edition of ICIS forecasting will help traders and
purchasers minimize the risk in their decisions regarding
this Asian market."

    Benzene is a primary raw material in the production of
styrene, phenol, cyclohexane and other chemicals.  Styrene
is predominantly used in polystyrene (PS), which is
produced in general purpose (GPPS), high impact (HIPS) and
expandable polystyrene (EPS) grades.  Polystyrene is used
in a variety of consumer and commercial products with major
application in domestic appliances, construction,
electronics, toys and food packaging.  EPS is divided into
two grades, block and packaging.  Block material is
primarily used in heat and sound isolation for buildings,
siding and exterior wall sheathing.  Packaging material is
used in disposable containers and packaging of sensitive
equipment.

    ICIS forecasting will report on Benzene FOB Korea,
Styrene China CFR, GPPS CFR Hong Kong, HIPS CFR Hong Kong,
and EPS Packaging Grade CFR China.

    The Asian benzene market has been hallmarked by
volatility, thus creating a demand for monthly forecasts,
with spot values fluctuating in a yawning $600/tonne gap
over the past 2 years of trade at $600-1,200/tonne FOB
Korea.  Prices have hinged on Asia's growing benzene demand
that rides on the continued health of the downstream styrene
and phenol industries.  Aside from factors directly
influencing supply and demand like start-ups and shutdowns
in aromatics and downstream facilities, market players have
paid close attention to US benzene prices for Asia-US
arbitrage opportunities.  Seasonal variables in the US,
like driving season demand and the hurricane season have
held considerable sway over the Asian spot benzene market.
Toluene, another aromatic that has seen volatile trade, is
a feedstock that has been contributing to about 30% of
Asian supplies.  Toluene and crude fluctuations upstream
have added an added layer of complexity towards benzene
price forecasting.

    "ICIS forecasting monthly reports enable industry
suppliers, manufacturers, and other stakeholders to more
accurately forecast their investments," Farone added.
"We are excited to launch a service that will support
smart business decisions."

    Continuing volatility of petrochemical prices
throughout the past years has exposed the weakness in
current forecasting methodologies and highlighted the need
for a scientific rather than experiential approach to
forecasting.  Scientific models create consistency,
precision and eliminate reliance on the judgment of key
individuals. ICIS forecasting's three modeling techniques
are:

    1. ICIS Market Sentiment Index:

    A breakthrough in price forecasting, the innovative
ICIS Market Sentiment Index identifies events (e.g., plant
closings, product shortages) previously reported by ICIS
that impact the behavior of market participants (in terms
of supply, demand and price).  In short, it establishes the
quantitative relationship between a combination of multiple
events and market reaction to those events.

    The Market Sentiment Index quantifies the combination
of inflationary and deflationary news stories reported by
ICIS and expresses them as a number.  This number is
positive in months where more inflationary than
deflationary events have occurred; it is negative where the
combination of events is likely to have a deflationary
impact on sentiment.

    2. Time Series:

    Time series modeling analyzes patterns in historic
prices and is particularly useful in short-term forecasts.

    3. Multivariate:

    Multivariate pricing identifies relationships between
prices and other variables, including consumer and
industrial indicators and trade and price data.

    ICIS forecasting's methodology forecasts prices by
incorporating the output of the index in the forecasting
model of each feedstock product (e.g., Benzene, Styrene,
and Polystyrene).  The price generated by incorporating the
Market Sentiment Index is provided separately in the monthly
report.

    ICIS forecasting is completely independent from ICIS
price reporting and is based on statistical analysis of
historical assessments plus textual analysis of news
files.

    ICIS forecasting was developed in partnership with BMG
DecisionCraft, a consulting firm that uses advanced
analytical tools to help companies increase profitability
and manage risk. Co-based in London and India, BMG
DecisionCraft clients include one of North America's
largest car manufacturers, one of the United Kingdom's
largest lenders and one of Europe's leading private equity
funds.  Principals in London include Mark Giles, managing
director, and Dr. Stephen Price, director.  Principals in
India include Dr. P.R. Shukla, co-founder of the Ahmedabad
management school, Dr. Nilotpal Chakrvarti, head of the
Modeling Laboratory at Ahmedabad (India's leading
management school), and Dr. Pankaj Chandra, head of Supply
Chain Analytics at Ahmedabad.

    A free sample of ICIS forecasting can be obtained at
http://www.icis.com/forecasting .

    Notes to Editors:

    ICIS forecasting ( http://www.icis.com/forecasting ) is
part of ICIS, the world's leading information provider for
the chemical and oil industry.  ICIS operates with a team
of more than 170 people in key markets around the world.
For more information about ICIS products and services,
please visit http://www.icis.com .
 
    Reed Business Information

    ICIS is part of Reed Business Information (RBI), a
division of Reed Business and a member of Reed Elsevier
plc, the world's leading publisher and information
provider.  RBI publishes more than 100 market leading
publications, directories and online services, and
organizes many industry conferences and awards.  The RBI
portfolio includes Computer Weekly, Caterer &
Hotelkeeper, Commercial Motor, Community Care, Estates
Gazette, Farmers Weekly, Flight International, New
Scientist, Travel Weekly, Totaljobs.com, Caterer.com,
CWJobs, Estates Gazette Interactive (EGi), ATI (Air
Transport Intelligence), ICIS, Kellysearch, Kompass UK, and
Bankers' Almanac.  For a full listing visit
http://www.reedbusiness.co.uk .

    For more information, contact:

     Allison Farone
     ICIS
     3730 Kirby Drive, Suite 1030
     Houston, TX 77098
     Tel:   [phone]
     Fax:   [phone]
     Email: [e-mail]


SOURCE  ICIS Forecasting