ICIS Forecasting Launches Propylene to Polypropylene Monthly Report

ICIS Forecasting Launches Propylene to Polypropylene Monthly Report

March 06, 2007

Monthly service blends three innovative modeling techniques
to deliver industry's most frequent, precise price forecast

    SINGAPORE, March 6 /Xinhua-PRNewswire/ -- ICIS, the
world's leading information provider for the chemical and
oil industries, today announced the launch of the Asia
Propylene to Polypropylene monthly report, the eighth
product chain included in ICIS forecasting. Since June
2006, ICIS forecasting has launched reports for the
Polystyrene, Polyethylene, Polypropylene and Phenol-Acetone
markets in the US and the Polyethylene and Para-xylene
markets in Asia.  The monthly Ethylene to Polyethylene
product chain covering the European market will also be
launched shortly.  

    "Due to continuing market volatility, there is a
strong demand for price forecasting of the Propylene and
Polypropylene product chain in the petrochemical
industry," said Allison Farone, ICIS Vice President -
Americas.  "The ICIS forecasting monthly report offers
the industry a radically new, data-driven approach that is
as transparent as it is inclusive of all major factors
contributing to price movements."

    Propylene consumption is dominated by polypropylene,
which accounts for 62% of global consumption and is one of
the fastest growing derivatives at 5-6%/year. Polypropylene
has a wide variety of end uses in the form of injection
moulded parts, fibres and filaments, and non-woven
materials. 

    The Asian propylene market saw a stellar year in 2006
when the highest price level hit $1,340/tonne in August,
after a low of $755/tonne in June 2005. Such phenomenon
went against market expectations, driving up Asia's
chemical prices. 

    Whether this could be seen again in 2007 is a mystery
to the olefins market. Moreover, with spot supplies net
short in both northeast and southeast regions despite
expectations of new capacities towards the second half of
2007, it remains to be seen how propylene prices would be
reflect such external factors. 

    Asian polypropylene prices hit a new 10-year peak of
$1,410/tonne CFR China/SE Asia in August 2006 on the back
of tight supply due to regional plant turnarounds and
bullish sentiment stirred up by record high crude prices.
The steep price hikes had caught regional producers,
converters and traders by surprise. Many converters and
traders were forced to cut imports as they lacked adequate
financing resources to cope with the new market reality. It
could have been a different situation for the industry if it
had been given indications of the price direction ahead of
time. 

    "It was with this understanding in mind that ICIS
forecasting decided to launch a monthly report to plug the
gap in pricing information," Farone added. "We
are excited to launch a service that will help industry
players make effective pricing decisions."

    Continuing volatility of petrochemical prices during
the past 18 months has exposed the weakness in current
forecasting methodologies and highlighted the need for a
scientific, rather than experiential approach, to
forecasting.  Scientific models create consistency,
precision and eliminate reliance on the judgment of key
individuals. ICIS forecasting's three modeling techniques
are:

    1. ICIS Market Sentiment Index:

       A breakthrough in price forecasting, the innovative
ICIS Market 
       Sentiment Index identifies events (e.g., plant
closings, product 
       shortages) previously reported by ICIS that impact
the behavior of 
       market participants (in terms of supply, demand and
price).  In short, 
       it establishes the quantitative relationship between
a combination of 
       multiple events and market reaction to those
events.

       The Market Sentiment Index quantifies the
combination of inflationary 
       and deflationary news stories reported by ICIS and
expresses them as a 
       number. This number is positive in months where more
inflationary than 
       deflationary events have occurred; it is negative
where the combination 
       of events is likely to have a deflationary impact on
sentiment.

    2. Time Series:

       Time series modeling analyses patterns in historic
prices and is 
       particularly useful in short-term forecasts.

    3. Multivariate:

       Multivariate pricing identifies relationships
between prices and other 
       variables, including consumer and industrial
indicators and trade and
       price data.

    ICIS forecasting's methodology forecasts prices by
incorporating the output of the index in the forecasting
model of each feedstock product (e.g., Propylene,
Polypropylene).  The price generated by incorporating the
Market Sentiment Index is provided separately in the
monthly report.

    ICIS forecasting is completely independent from ICIS
price reporting and is based on statistical analysis of
historical assessments plus textual analysis of news
files.

    A free sample of ICIS forecasting can be obtained by
going to this link: 
http://www.icis.com/forecasting/registerforecast.aspx?mode=trial&cp=OTC-CHFO-PressRelease-20070227
(Due to the length of the link, please copy and paste into
your browser.)

    Notes To Editors

    ICIS Forecasting ( http://www.icis.com/forecasting ) is
part of ICIS, the world's leading information provider for
the chemical and oil industry. ICIS operates with a team of
more than 170 people in key markets around the world. For
more information about ICIS products and services, please
visit http://www.icis.com .

    Reed Business Information

    ICIS is part of Reed Business Information (RBI), a
division of Reed Business and a member of Reed Elsevier
plc, the world's leading publisher and information
provider. RBI publishes more than 100 market leading
publications, directories and online services, and
organizes many industry conferences and awards.  The RBI
portfolio includes Computer Weekly, Caterer &
Hotelkeeper, Commercial Motor, Community Care, Estates
Gazette, Farmers Weekly, Flight International, New
Scientist, Travel Weekly, Totaljobs.com, Caterer.com,
CWJobs, Estates Gazette Interactive (EGi), ATI (Air
Transport Intelligence), ICIS, Kellysearch, Kompass UK, and
Bankers' Almanac.  For a full listing, visit
http://www.reedbusiness.co.uk .


    For more information, please contact: 

     ICIS
     Allison Farone 
     Tel:   [phone]
     Fax:   [phone]
     Email: [e-mail]


SOURCE  ICIS Forecasting