Platts Survey: OPEC Oil Output Falls in January, But Above Target

Platts Survey: OPEC Oil Output Falls in January, But Above Target

February 12, 2007

    LONDON, Feb. 12 /Xinhua-PRNewswire/ -- Platts -- The 10
OPEC members bound by the cartel's output agreements
produced an average 26.95 million barrels per day (b/d) in
January, down 50,000 b/d from December's 27 million b/d,
but still well above the group's November 2006 and February
2007 targets, a Platts survey showed February 9.

    Total OPEC output, including volumes from Iraq and new
member Angola, averaged 30.11 million b/d in January, 1.21
million b/d higher than December's 28.9 million b/d, the
survey showed. Iraq does not participate in OPEC output
agreements, while Angola, whose membership of the cartel is
just over a month old, has yet to accept or be allocated any
output target.

    The survey showed that the so-called OPEC-10 in January
were still 650,000 b/d above their 26.3 million b/d target
output level which came into effect on November 1, 2006.
This target was superseded on February 1, 2007 by a new,
lower output target of 25.8 million b/d following OPEC's
mid-December decision to expand the 1.2 million b/d
production cut agreed in October to 1.7 million b/d.

    "OPEC's output has not declined much from what it
was in December, but from OPEC's perspective, that's
OK," says John Kingston, Platts global director of
oil. "Firm prices near $60 mean the group's current
production levels are not excessive relative to
demand."

    But the second quarter looms, and that is traditionally
the weakest demand quarter, he cautions. "If OPEC wants
to defend current prices near $60 it may prove difficult to
do if the group's production levels stay just under 27
million barrels per day. Most other projections see the
market's need for OPEC oil in the second quarter to be less
than that."

    Output decreases totaling 70,000 b/d from Algeria,
Libya, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela were partly offset by a
20,000 increase in Nigerian production, which edged up to
2.25 million b/d from 2.23 million b/d.

    Iraqi volumes were sharply down in January, partly as a
result of the main Gulf export terminal at al-Basrah being
closed for three days to install refurbished measuring
meters. Bad weather also took its toll on exports.

    The survey estimated Angolan production at 1.5 million
b/d. Angolan production has been rising steadily in recent
years. Oil minister Desiderio da Graca Verissimo e Costa
said in December that Angola was aiming to achieve crude
production of 2 million b/d by mid-2007, several months
earlier than previously targeted.


    Country    January   December  November  October  
September   Nov 1 cut
    Algeria      1.340      1.350     1.350    1.370      
1.360       0.059
    Indonesia    0.860      0.860     0.860    0.860      
0.860       0.039
    Iran         3.850      3.850     3.850    3.900      
3.950       0.176
    Kuwait       2.460      2.460     2.460    2.530      
2.540       0.100
    Libya        1.690      1.700     1.710    1.730      
1.720       0.072
    Nigeria      2.250      2.230     2.230    2.300      
2.300       0.100
    Qatar        0.800      0.800     0.800    0.830      
0.830       0.035
    Saudi Arabia 8.750      8.790     8.800    9.070      
9.100       0.380
    UAE          2.500      2.500     2.550    2.600      
2.600       0.101
    Venezuela    2.450      2.460     2.460    2.540      
2.550       0.138
    OPEC-10     26.950     27.000    27.070   27.730     
27.810       1.200
    Angola       1.500       N/A       N/A      N/A        
N/A         N/A
    Iraq         1.660      1.900     1.990    2.020      
2.140        N/A
    Total       30.110     28.900    29.060   29.750     
29.950      1.200

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